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Dr. Henry Tamburin is the author of the best-selling Blackjack:
Take the Money & Run and publisher of the Blackjack Insider Newsletter.
No other hand makes blackjack players feel more queasy than the dreaded 16. Players hate to hit the hand because they are afraid to bust. So many chicken out and stand no matter what the dealer shows. Others opt for the surrender option if it’s available figuring losing half a bet is better then losing it all. If your 16 comes as a pair of 8’s most players are reluctant to split if the dealer shows a 9, 10, or ace because they are afraid of losing two bets instead of one. Then there is the ace, 5 or soft 16 hand. I’ve seen players stand on this hand (a terrible play), I’ve seen then hit, but rarely do I see them double down (which is the correct play some of the time).
Let’s focus first on a hard 16. That’s a hand that does not contain an ace or if it does the ace counts as one. Some examples of a hard 16 would be 10, 6 or 5, 7, 4 or 7, 8, ace.
The correct basic playing strategy for hard 16 is to stand when the dealer shows a small card (2 through 6) and hit when the dealer shows a high card (7, 8, 9, 10, or ace). Following this playing strategy will not guarantee that you will win every time but that you are more likely to win. Let me explain.
Suppose you are dealt a 10,6 and the dealer shows a 7 upcard.
If you hit you win on average 30% of the time and lose 70%.
If you stand you will on average 26% and lose 74%.
Note that you improve your chances of winning the hand by 4% if you hit rather than stand. But the dealer is still an overwhelming favorite to beat you because he will win 70% of the hands to your 30%. But is it better to win 26% of the time by standing or 30% of the time by hitting? You should hit because it will increase your chance of winning by 4%, not much, but every percentage will help you in the long run when you play blackjack.
So the bottom line with a hard 16 is this. Even by following the basic strategy you will lose more hands than you win but in the long run you will loss less than following a seat-of-the-pants strategy. Losing less on hands where you are the underdog is just as important as winning more when you are the favorite.
What if your 16 consists of 3 or more cards like 5, 7, 4? Normally the basic strategy ignores the composition of the hand. However, as Fred Renzy astutely points out in his excellent book, Blackjack Bluebook, if you have a hard 16 hand consisting of 3 or more cards that contain any 4 or 5’s, then you should stand when the dealer has a 10 showing. The reason is that you need the 4 or 5’s when you draw to your hard 16 to make a most likely winning hand of 20 or 21. Since one of the key cards you that need is already in your hand, you are less likely to draw the desirable 4 or 5. This tips the odds in favor of standing.
Some casinos allow players to surrender. This means you give up the opportunity to play out your hand and automatically lose half your bet. Even when surrender is offered, most players don’t like “giving up” without a fight. So they rarely surrender. That’s unfortunate because surrendering a hard 16 when the dealer shows a 9, 10, or ace will save you more money in the long run than hitting. In fact surrender is always the best option when your chances of winning a hand is less than 25%. Take the hand of hard 16 against a 10. If we hit our chance of winning is 23.4%. This means the dealer’s chance of beating us is 76.6%. If we played a hundred hard 16’s against the dealer 10 with those probabilities, we would end up winning about $23 and losing $77 for a net loss of $54 on average. By surrendering on every hand our net loss would be $50. Get the point? You are better off losing $50 then $54 which is why surrendering a hard 16 against a 10 is the better play because you will save $4.
Sometimes your 16 will consist of an ace counted as 11 (e.g. ace, 5 or 3, 2, ace). This is a soft 16 hand and it’s played much differently then the hard 16 hand. For one, you can’t bust a soft 16 with a one-card draw since you can always count the ace as 1. Therefore you should always hit a soft 16 no matter what the dealer shows. In the event you are dealt an ace, 5 (a two card soft 16), then your optimum strategy is to double down when the dealer shows a 4, 5 or 6 upcard. Why? Because you get the chance to put more money on the table by doubling when the dealer is more vulnerable to busting (which is the case when he shows a 4, 5 or 6 upcard).
Finally, we have the pair of 8’s. The correct basic strategy play is to always split the 8’s no matter what the dealer shows. Even though you will lose money on both 8’s when you split, the combined loss in the long run will be less than the amount you will loss by playing the one hand as a 16. Splitting 8’s against a dealer 10 by the way is also a slightly better play then surrendering.
The above playing strategy for hard 16, soft 16 and a pair of 8’s may change depending upon the composition of the remaining cards in the shoe. For example, if there are a lot more tens than small cards left in the unplayed cards, it may not be wise to hit hard 16 or split 8’s (can you see why?). Likewise if the unplayed cards contain an abundance of small vs. high cards, then surrender may not be the right play. These advanced strategy plays requires, however, that the player learn card counting.
No question that 16 is a lousy blackjack hand. Unfortunately it’s one of the most often hands you are going to be dealt in blackjack. But by following the above playing strategy you will be optimizing your chances of winning more and losing less in the long run. It’s the smart way to play blackjack
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