|
|
|
|
Dr. Henry Tamburin is the author of the best-selling Blackjack:
Take the Money & Run and publisher of the Blackjack Insider Newsletter.
Which of the following statements is true.
| 1. |
You should always take insurance when you are dealt a blackjack. |
| 2. |
Unskilled players will hurt other player’s chances of winning. |
| 3. |
It’s impossible to card count in multiple deck games. |
Surprise! All are false. Yet I bet if I polled typical blackjack players most would say they were true.
The purpose of this article is to refute the most misunderstood and most frequently quoted myths about blackjack. Perhaps you can relate to some of them because you’ve either heard them, believe them, or maybe even promulgated some of them yourself. But do not fret, because now, once and for all, you will know what the absolute truth really is and why these myths are simply not true.
How do these myths get started and why do they perpetuate from one generation of blackjack players to the next? I have two theories on this. First, the logic that is used to convince players that the myth is true is often mathematically flawed. Secondly, it’s a lot easier for a player to blame his losses on someone or something, rather than on his lack of knowledge about the game or the natural fluctuations which occur in the game of blackjack.
So let’s begin the debunking process - first by stating the myth followed by the logic most often used by the myth perpetuators, and finally the absolute truth.
Myth #1 The third base player is killing me.
The majority of blackjack players would swear this is a true statement. Why? Because they can always retell a horror story of how they lost a big bet because of some “stupid” play made by the third base or anchor player. Here’s a typical tale that proves their point.
The dealer shows a weak 5 upcard and everyone makes the right play and stands on their stiff totals. Everyone, that is, except the nerd playing third base. He’s got 10 and a 5 and he ponders for what seems like eternity on whether or not to draw or stand. He finally decides to take a shot much to the consternation of his fellow players. Everyone winces as the dealer gives him a ten and he breaks. That ten should have been the dealer’s card. Instead, the dealer flips over her downcard – a 10 giving her 15 – and instead of drawing the ten and breaking, the dealer pulls a 6 for an unbeatable 21.
I’ve seen some players go bezerk when this happens, sometimes to the point of physically attacking the third base player because “his stupid play caused the entire table to lose”. After all if he had stood like he was supposed to, the dealer would have gotten the ten and broke.
.
The above scenario is enacted every day at every blackjack table in every casino where blackjack is played. When it happens to you or your fellow players time after time, it’s no wonder players believe the myth.
But here is the truth. Yes dumb plays made by dumb players can effect the outcome of a hand for everyone. But it is just as likely to effect a player’s outcome in a positive way rather then a negative way. Suppose the third base player in this example mistakenly hit and drew a 6. The dealer then draws a picture card and busts. Do players thank the nerd for hitting when he should have stood? Of course not, because when you win a hand it’s due to your blackjack skills, but when you lose it’s easier to blame the dumb play of others.
Pay attention because you must believe in the following fact or you will never be successful at blackjack
While the unorthodox play of some of your fellow players may sometimes astound you, mathematically it has no long-term effect on your outcome.
Myth #2. I’m due to win.
Here’s the reason for this myth in a nutshell. Blackjack is almost an even game therefore if I lose 4, 5 or 6 hands in a row the odds are in my favor that I’ll win the next hand.
The truth is that the odds of winning the next hand in blackjack is totally independent upon whether you won, lost or tied the previous hands. Eventually, you’ll win almost as many hands as you lose (discounting ties, you’ll actually win about 47% of the hands and lose 53%). However, eventually means a long time and not necessarily the short time frame it takes to complete a typical playing session.
Anything is possible over the short term in blackjack including winning or losing several hands in a row. But this is due to the nature of the game and not too predictable winning and losing cycles. When you play blackjack, don’t bet that you are due to win based on what has just occurred. There is no mathematical basis for doing so.
Myth #3. The object of blackjack is to get as close to 21 as possible.
Some authors and casino-marketing folks try to over simplify the objective of the game by stating it’s to get as close to 21 as possible. That is simply not true.
The fact is the objective in blackjack is to beat the dealer. You do this in only two ways. By either having a hand that totals higher than the dealer’s hand or not busting when the dealer busts. If instead you try to get as close to 21 as possible, by say following the dealer’s rules, you will bust 28% of the time. And guess what happens when you bust? You automatically lose even if the dealer subsequently busts. This one rule of blackjack is what creates the casino’s edge and why players who “to try to get as close to 21 as possible” are doomed to lose.
Myth # 4. Always insure your blackjack or 20 against a dealer’s ace.
Here are the arguments for taking insurance when you have a blackjack or a 20.
If you have blackjack when the dealer shows an ace, always take even money (which is the same as insurance) because you will automatically win regardless if the dealer does or does not have a blackjack. Similarly, you can avoid losing money by insuring a 20 because if the dealer has blackjack you end up with a push (you lose your original bet but win 2 to 1 on the insurance bet resulting in a push). In both cases, you can’t lose.
Here are the facts. When you have a 20 it’s the worst possible time to take insurance. That’s because you are holding two ten value cards that the dealer needs in order for you to win your insurance bet (remember you win your insurance bet only when the dealer’s hole card is a ten or picture card giving him a blackjack).
When you are dealt a blackjack hand, it’s tempting to take the sure 1 to 1 payoff when the dealer offers you “even money”. If you pass up getting the 1 to 1 even money payoff, and the dealer has blackjack you end with a push (you don’t win, but on the other hand you don’t lose). Players like the “bird in the hand” theory and prefer the sure gain of winning 1 unit rather then risk winning nothing with a push. But what they don’t realize is that more often the dealer will not have blackjack. When this happens, the player who passes on the even money wager ends up winning a tidy 3 to 2 payoff.
By not taking even money your long-term average payback on the blackjack hand will be 1.04 to 1, which is greater then the 1 to 1 payback when you take even money. In other words, you’ll earn about 4% more money on average by not taking even money. Unless you like giving up 4% of your potential profits to the casino, do yourself and your bankroll a favor and do not take even money.
Myth #5. Betting progressions can overcome the casino’s edge in blackjack.
There are many different types of progressive betting systems for blackjack. They are all based on increasing or decreasing the size of bets depending upon the outcome of the previous hands. With win progressions, you increase the size of your bets when you are on a winning streak. With Martingale type progressions, you double your bets in a losing streak so that eventually when you win a hand, you recoup all your previous losses.
The reason players use betting progressions in blackjack is that they believe they can win more money using them even if they lose more hands. They also believe that blackjack is a game of streaks and you can capitalize on streaks by using a betting progression. They also believe that if you always bet the same amount on every hand the casino’s edge will “grind you down”.
Here is the absolute truth on betting progressions. You may not like it but you better believe it. Betting progressions in blackjack will not alter the casino’s edge what so ever. The reason is that you can not use the past results of winning or losing hands to predict future outcomes. There is no mathematical basis for doing it.
Betting progressions over the short term will yield some bigger wins and bigger losses compared to flat betting. But if you collectively add up the amount of money won and lost using a betting progression vs. flat betting, over time the two will have the same results -a loss rate equal to the casino’s edge.
What you can use to predict the outcome of future hands is the composition of the cards in the previously dealt hands. This is what card counting is all about and it is the only way you can predict whether your chances of winning the next hand are better then the dealer. The bottom line is this: no progressive betting system based on previous wins and losses will alter the casino’s edge in blackjack.
Myth #6. “Increase your bets when the dealer’s cold”.
Makes sense. Find a blackjack table with a cold dealer and you’ll find happy players who are winning. Better grab a seat and get in the game so you can cash in while you can.
The truth of the matter is that you don’t really know when the dealer’s cold streak will end. Dealers certainly have cold streaks just like sometimes they have hot streaks. Unfortunately, there is no way of predicting when these streaks will start or stop. In fact it’s just as likely to end after you sit down and make that first bet.
As tempting as it is to press up your bets when the dealer is cold and cut back when he’s hot, you won’t be altering the casino’s edge one iota. The same goes for when you are on a hot streak and are tempted to bet more. Noted blackjack author and theoretician Stanford Wong proved this point when he analyzed 20 million computer generated blackjack hands for streakiness (for details read Wong’s book, Professional Blackjack). The result was that a player has just as much chance to win the next hand after either winning the previous two hands or losing the previous two hands. As Wong correctly states: “Trying to bet more when you are winning or less when you are losing, is an exercise in futility; it will not win any money. Steaks occur, but they cannot be predicted.”
I said it once and I’ll say it again -when you play blackjack, you can not capitalize on past results based on wins, losses, or streaks because you can not use these results to predict future outcomes.
Myth # 7. “Pictures follow pictures”.
Many players believe that when a picture card is drawn from a shoe, there is the strong possibility that the next card will also be a picture card. They even alter their playing strategy for fear of busting.
Here are the facts. After a picture card shows, the chances that the next card is a picture card will be less not more. There is no mathematical basis to this myth. Sometimes picture cards will follow other picture cards during the playout of a shoe but this because few picture cards showed in earlier rounds. This is the only reason that a picture card is more likely to follow another picture card. And the only way to predict if an abundance of picture and ten value cards exists in the unplayed cards is to card count, not to rely on the myth that “pictures follow pictures”.
For more myths debunked see part 2 in this series
|
| |
<< back to articles |
|
| |
|
|
|
| Win an iPod Nano MP3 Player |
| Register for Casinocoinage.co.uk's Newsletter |
 |
| Register now |
|
|
|
