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"Well, should I or shouldn't I?"
The voice belonged to Mark, who had attended a couple of seminars I'd given. This time, he was seeking advice. I asked what it was he should or shouldn't do.
"Make the progressive bet at Caribbean Stud. What are the odds?"
I told him the bet was a long-shot, but it was his decision. Whether you’re gaming online or offline, the jackpots can get quite large … tempting, to say the least.
"But tell me what you really think of that progressive bet? Is it something I should just skip?"
That depends on why you're playing Caribbean Stud, I told him. Are you just relaxing a bit over a game that's easy to play, or are you jackpot hunting?
"A little of both, really. Mostly I play blackjack. Basic strategy stuff --- I never really got into counting cards. Still, you have to pay attention, and when my concentration starts to go, I do something else for a while. Maybe I'll fool around on the nickel slots, or sometimes I'll play a little Caribbean Stud."
I nodded. Basic strategy for Caribbean Stud is much easier than that for blackjack. There is a cost, though. A blackjack basic strategy player can get the house edge down to about a half percent on a six-deck game, a few tenths more or less depending on house rules. At Caribbean Stud, even if you play well, the house edge is 5.2 percent of the ante or 2.6 percent of total action.
"I know that, and it's a break-time game for me. But I also like the idea that I can win pretty big, pretty fast when the cards run good. You don't have to have great cards, full houses or flushes or anything, but get some two pairs and some three of a kinds and it's really sweet. When you're being paid 2-1 or 3-1 on hands like that instead of just even money like in blackjack, that stack of chips can grow in a hurry."
Winning hands are much less frequent in Caribbean Stud than in blackjack, and most of the winners are pair or lower hands, paying even money, or hands in which the dealer doesn't qualify, paying only on the ante.
"Right, but there's always the chance at a big one, and some real money. I'm not greedy. I know the royal flush is pretty unlikely, but give me 7-1 on a full house and I'm a happy man. Give me 20-1 on four of a kind, and it makes my day. If I throw in the extra dollar and get back another $75 on the full house or $100 on four of a kind --- it's pretty exciting."
I told him the question is whether the excitement is worth it on a bet you don’t win often.
"But if you watch the jackpot level, you can get a pretty decent house edge, right? It's not always an awful bet."
On the standard pay table --- $50 on a flush, $75 on a full house, $100 on four of a kind, either $5,000 or 10 percent of the jackpot on a straight flush or the full jackpot on a royal flush --- the break-even point is about $263,000. But the house edge isn't the entire issue. Even if the jackpot is very large and the house edge is very low, or players have the edge, the likelihood of winning is very low. In five-card stud poker, there are 2,598,960 possible hands. Only four of those are royal flushes --- one royal per 649,740 hands.
The most frequent winners on the progressive bet are flushes --- about one per 509 hands. Add up all the winners, and you'll still average a winner once per 273 hands.
"And that doesn't change with the bigger jackpot?"
That doesn't change. Frequency of winning hands remains the same, it's only the size of potential rewards that changes.
"But do you know how horrible I'd feel if I got dealt the royal and didn't bet the progressive? I think I'd rather lose the dollars than to risk that."
Then that's your answer, I told him.
"One winner per 273 hands? That's tough," he said, smiling as he left. "I think I'll keep a countdown."
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